SPEAKER Baroness Glenys Kinnock

EVENT 4 degree map launch

DATE 03/11/2009

I am delighted to be here for the first time as Minister for Africa - but among old friends. All my political life I have had close connections to South AfricaI am pleased to be able to launch in South Africa a map which shows the impact of an average four degree rise in global temperature.

The map, produced by leading UK scientists coordinated by the Met Office Hadley Centre, was launched at the Science Museum in London two weeks ago.
It paints a picture of the defining issue of our generation. A study by the Met Office last month said that the 4 degree rise in temperature could come as soon as 2060 unless urgent action is taken to reduce emissions. 

The Science Museum launch took place in advance of the Copenhagen summit where we will need to secure a new global deal which is effective enough to limit global temperature to a rise of two degrees. This means agreement on finance, technology transfer, deforestation adaption and mitigation. It will not be easy: the Foreign Secretary believes that Copenhagen presents us with the prospect of complicated and contentious negotiations.  

The map as you can see shows that the effects will not be evenly spread across the globe, with temperature rises much larger than 4 degrees in high latitudes and in the Arctic. Because the sea warms more slowly average land temperature will increase by 5.5 degrees which scientists predict could shrink agricultural yields for all major cereal crops in all major regions of production. Computer models predict severe drought and risk of fires in the Amazon. Up to 70% reduction in water run off would take place in southern Africa. The maps shows the rise in temperature in parts of Africa will be 7 or 8 degrees and this will have devastating effects.

The map would suggest that enormous pressures will be felt through water and food shortages, mass migration and conflict. Climate change is often seen as a purely environmental issue. But it is clear from the map that the environmental impacts are just the start. Climate change is not just a scientific emergency but a human security one – it will affect our economies, our sustainable livelihoods, and our way of life.

So let’s be clear that Copenhagen has to be a success for the future of our children and grandchildren. I recommend the messages sent by the map to you all.

Back to newsroom

Back to top